According to an analysis by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), global demand for steel scrap is set to exceed supply by 2030. The consultancy forecasts a 15 million tonne supply deficit by 2030 in a sharp reversal from to the 9 million tonne surplus in global supply recorded in 2021.
An important driver of this shift is the transformation underway in the steel industry, where more and more steel manufacturers are moving from conventional basic oxygen blast furnace processes (BOF) to scrap-based steel production in electric arc furnace (EAF) mills in an endeavour to cut greenhouse gas emissions. By 2030, BCG expects around half the iron content in steel to stem from scrap compared to 35 per cent today.
According to the management consultancy group, global steel scrap supply will not be able to keep up with the growth in demand. Despite BCG forecasts showing an increase in the supply of obsolete and new scrap from 667 million to 868 million tonnes over the period 2021 to 2030 – which corresponds to an average annual growth rate of 3.0 per cent – demand is forecast to grow at 3.3 per cent per year, bringing global ferrous scrap demand from 658 million to 883 million tonnes per year by 2030....
